Why we say we can predict anything … after the fact
Creativity needs room to breathe. There is no faster way to suffocate imagination than negative comments such as “I’ve seen that before” and “That’s not new.” Likewise, when a project doesn’t go well, somebody usually chimes in with “You should have seen that coming,” implying that they did but didn’t want to say anything.
Where exactly do these comments come from? No, “jerks” is not exactly the source I’m referring to. They are the result of “hindsight bias,” our human tendency to view things as much more predictable than they actually are—when considering events after they happened. In other words, it is Monday morning quarterbacking.
The hindsight bias is scarily powerful. In a classic study, subjects responded with “I would have predicted that” to comments that directly contradicted one another. Also, people will incorrectly remember their own predictions depending on the outcome of an event. For example, before an ad campaign, a manager may have anticipated an 80 percent success rate. But if the campaign fails, he is likely to recall having given it a lower chance of success.
Lastly, we are more likely to exhibit hindsight bias when it works in our favor, and less likely to show it when it works in favor of others. In other words, you always knew you would succeed, and you always knew that others wouldn’t. As the saying goes, hindsight is 20/20.
What possible good could come from such a bias? We evolved to learn from our mistakes, even if that means rewriting history. Hindsight is how we update previous assumptions. Despite being told that assuming “only makes an ass out of you and me,” we are built to do it. At least our assumptions can become more nuanced and refined over time/as we age. Unfortunately, the cost may involve ignoring the truth and stepping on others’ toes.
An understanding of the hindsight bias can help you plan marketing. Remember these points:
1. Be suspicious of post hoc (after the fact) explanations of why, for example, your campaign was or was not successful. They are usually examples of hindsight bias rather than accurate assessments.
2. Work with your marketing team to gauge the probable success of different marketing scenarios, both good and bad. Pretend it is the end of your campaign, and assume that the campaign did not work. Then explain why it failed. Next, assume that it did was successful, and work backwards to create the campaign that will lead to those precise results. This is using hindsight before the fact. This helps deflate later hindsight bias, and makes assessment more objective. The best part is that you are actually creating foresight out of hindsight. This is a great way to predict potential trouble spots before you launch a campaign/before you make a decision.
3. Acknowledge that you are susceptible to hindsight bias. To counteract this, get outside advice before making decisions. The hindsight bias favors us responding to areas in which we previously have been successful. For example, if you’ve had a lot of luck with radio, you are less likely to consider other ad venues, even if they show success. Or the bias can cause interviewers to reject job applicants who have succeeded in areas new to the interviewers.
4. Employees benefit from constant and continual feedback. Don’t expect them to self-correct. Studies show that knowledge can remain unchanged without feedback. Employees might not give you credit for their growth—hindsight bias will make them believe they improved themselves—but who cares? The important thing is that they will become better employees.
5. Don’t let hindsight bias get in the way of creative thinking. Don’t allow others to pooh-pooh ideas as “obvious” or “unoriginal.” All ideas should be on the table until proven unworkable.
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Hindsight Bias and Marketing Management
Why we say we can predict anything … after the fact
Where exactly do these comments come from? No, “jerks” is not exactly the source I’m referring to. They are the result of “hindsight bias,” our human tendency to view things as much more predictable than they actually are—when considering events after they happened. In other words, it is Monday morning quarterbacking.
The hindsight bias is scarily powerful. In a classic study, subjects responded with “I would have predicted that” to comments that directly contradicted one another. Also, people will incorrectly remember their own predictions depending on the outcome of an event. For example, before an ad campaign, a manager may have anticipated an 80 percent success rate. But if the campaign fails, he is likely to recall having given it a lower chance of success.
Lastly, we are more likely to exhibit hindsight bias when it works in our favor, and less likely to show it when it works in favor of others. In other words, you always knew you would succeed, and you always knew that others wouldn’t. As the saying goes, hindsight is 20/20.
What possible good could come from such a bias? We evolved to learn from our mistakes, even if that means rewriting history. Hindsight is how we update previous assumptions. Despite being told that assuming “only makes an ass out of you and me,” we are built to do it. At least our assumptions can become more nuanced and refined over time/as we age. Unfortunately, the cost may involve ignoring the truth and stepping on others’ toes.
An understanding of the hindsight bias can help you plan marketing. Remember these points:
1. Be suspicious of post hoc (after the fact) explanations of why, for example, your campaign was or was not successful. They are usually examples of hindsight bias rather than accurate assessments.
2. Work with your marketing team to gauge the probable success of different marketing scenarios, both good and bad. Pretend it is the end of your campaign, and assume that the campaign did not work. Then explain why it failed. Next, assume that it did was successful, and work backwards to create the campaign that will lead to those precise results. This is using hindsight before the fact. This helps deflate later hindsight bias, and makes assessment more objective. The best part is that you are actually creating foresight out of hindsight. This is a great way to predict potential trouble spots before you launch a campaign/before you make a decision.
3. Acknowledge that you are susceptible to hindsight bias. To counteract this, get outside advice before making decisions. The hindsight bias favors us responding to areas in which we previously have been successful. For example, if you’ve had a lot of luck with radio, you are less likely to consider other ad venues, even if they show success. Or the bias can cause interviewers to reject job applicants who have succeeded in areas new to the interviewers.
4. Employees benefit from constant and continual feedback. Don’t expect them to self-correct. Studies show that knowledge can remain unchanged without feedback. Employees might not give you credit for their growth—hindsight bias will make them believe they improved themselves—but who cares? The important thing is that they will become better employees.
5. Don’t let hindsight bias get in the way of creative thinking. Don’t allow others to pooh-pooh ideas as “obvious” or “unoriginal.” All ideas should be on the table until proven unworkable.